By betadmin Calculating the odds on a bet can be done in different ways depending on the type of odds you’re dealing with: fractional, decimal, or American (moneyline) odds. Here’s how to work out the odds for each type:
### Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are typically used in the UK and Ireland. They are expressed as a fraction, such as 3/1 or 5/2. The first number (numerator) represents how much you will win from a bet of the second number (denominator).
For example, with 3/1 odds:
– If you bet $1, you would win $3 plus your original stake back, for a total return of $4.
To calculate the implied probability of fractional odds, use the following formula:
“`
Implied Probability = Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator)
“`
### Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are popular in Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are easier to understand as they represent the amount you will win for every $1 wagered, including your original stake.
For example, if the decimal odds are 4.0:
– If you bet $1, you would win $4, which includes your original stake.
To calculate the implied probability of decimal odds, use this formula:
“`
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
“`
### American (Moneyline) Odds
American odds are either positive or negative numbers and are based on a $100 stake. Positive odds show how much profit you will win on a $100 bet, while negative odds show how much you need to bet to win $100.
For example:
– If the odds are +300, you would win $300 on a $100 bet.
– If the odds are -150, you would need to bet $150 to win $100.
To calculate the implied probability of American odds:
– For positive odds: `1 / (American Odds / 100) + 1`
– For negative odds: `1 / (-American Odds / 100) + 1`
### Example Calculations
Let’s calculate the implied probability for each type of odds with an example of 3/1 fractional odds, 4.0 decimal odds, and +300 American odds:
#### Fractional Odds (3/1)
“`
Implied Probability = 1 / (3 + 1) = 1 / 4 = 0.25 or 25%
“`
#### Decimal Odds (4.0)
“`
Implied Probability = 1 / 4.0 = 0.25 or 25%
“`
#### American Odds (+300)
“`
Implied Probability = 1 / (300 / 100) + 1 = 1 / 3 + 1 = 1 / 3 + 3/3 = 4/3 ≈ 1.333 or 33.3%
“`
Remember, the implied probability is what the odds suggest the chance of the event occurring is. It’s important to compare this to your own assessment of the likelihood to determine if a bet offers good value. Keep in mind that odds also include a bookmaker’s margin (overround), which ensures they make a profit regardless of the outcome.